Doubting a Decision

A couple of years ago, when I was giving serious consideration to actually leaving my marriage, I spent a lot of time thinking about the pros and cons. One of the biggest things was the subject of children. I had three kids from a previous marriage, and I knew that the current wife wanted to have kids.

I was getting older, and the thought of having another kid at my age was not appealing at all. I knew that if I were to have another child, it would be graduating high school about the time I was wanting to retire. There were a lot of things that I wanted to do in life, mostly traveling, and felt that having another kid would put a damper on that.

Christmas of last year, I had gone home to see my family. My sister had a little girl a couple of years ago, and this was my first real opportunity to interact with her. The thing that I remember most about that trip is my little niece sitting on a chair across the room from me and babbling on in her own language.  I started talking nonsense words back to her, which caused her no end of amusement, and I wound up teaching her how to do the YMCA dance. After several iterations, I realized that the entire family was standing behind me, watching. After I left, I thought “That was fun.”

A few months later, my oldest son came to visit for a week. I took him to DC and The Statue of Liberty. While we were sight seeing, I realized that I was feeling the same sense of joy showing him around and sharing the experience with him that I had always wanted to share with a spouse. I started to realize that maybe, just maybe, it was possible to have my dream of seeing the world, and sharing it not only with a spouse, but with kids, and it would be just as special. Maybe more so. I started wondering if perhaps having kids wouldn’t be a damper on the seeing the world experience, but possibly make it better. I started thinking about other people I knew that had kids, and still were able to travel and see the world. I thought about how I was envious of their kids for being able to broaden their horizons, while I never had been able to. I finally realized that it was a bit selfish of me to think sharing these things with my kids would be a detriment to my own enjoyment.

The last thing that took me by surprise happened just before the Memorial Day weekend. We were having a barbecue at work, and one of the girls at work brought her 5 month old little girl. Of course, all the women were passing this poor child around like a bong at a frat party. Once again, as has happened so many times, this little girl caught sight of me and just kept looking and smiling. Her mother was amazed at how much attention was being paid to me by her daughter. As I sat there, watching my co-workers play baby baby who’s got the baby, I suddenly realized, to my amazement, that I wanted a turn holding her.

It kind of freaked me out.

I have technically been out of my marriage for a year. It was almost a year ago that I left on the five week assignment, after which I left my wife. Except for the two weeks when I was back, telling her I was leaving and packing everything up, I have essentially been separated almost a year. It has been long enough that I have been thinking about the possibilities of getting into a relationship again. One of the things that had been bothering me was that the likelihood of finding someone who didn’t already have kids, and who never wanted kids, was very very slim. So I had to take a look at how I felt about getting involved with someone who already had kids, and if they didn’t, how I felt about the fact that if they didn’t have kids, they probably would.

Mulling this over in my mind, I realized something. It wasn’t the kids that I didn’t necessarily want, it was child support. Child support, more than anything, has been that thing that has kept me from doing many of the things that I wanted to do. I simply didn’t have the money. I realized that it wasn’t that I didn’t want kids , it was that I didn’t want kids with the X2B. I knew how that would turn out. I knew that she did not have the capacity to be a good mother. I also knew that there was a really good chance that we wouldn’t last, and I didn’t want to start paying child support all over again. I also realized that, because of the failure of my first marriage, I have never had a chance to raise a child of my own. My oldest was six when we split, the youngest was under two. My ex and her new husband raised my kids. It has caused a lot of problems in my head. Every time they screw up, I blame myself since I wasn’t able to be there for them. If they do good, I am unable to take any credit for it since I really didn’t have a big part of their upbringing. The best I could say is that I was the “cool dad.” I was the one that could relate to them better. I kind of had that grandparents attitude of “love them, spoil them rotten, then send ‘em home.”

So, here I sit, getting ready to see a lawyer in a week or two to get the divorce papers ready for filing as soon as I legally can. When the judge signs, I will finally feel like I can get involved again, and I have doubts about my decision to not bring any more kids into this world. Right now, it kind of feels like I would not be opposed to the idea, as long as I felt there was a reasonable certainty that I would be able to raise them, and not just pay for someone else to do it.

Of course, this whole thing is rather academic. You cant be thinking about having kids if you cant find anyone willing to have sex with you.

A Week With My Eldest

My oldest son, officially out of the Army and back in our hometown, decided he had had enough of the hometown and was going to go on a road trip. I fully supported this for several reasons. One, I wouldn’t wish that town on anyone. Two, I am a big fan of road trips. Three, a visit to me was on his agenda.

After several delays, he showed up at my door late Saturday night. We crashed, then woke up on Sunday and did my traditional “Going to coffee” at my current favorite diner. After that, we headed in to town to catch the Metro into DC. Since I had only been on the metro once before, I wasn’t sure which train to get on. I asked a lovely lady with a cooler if we were waiting for the train to get into DC. She assured me that we were, then we talked about what she was doing. She had a cooler full of drinks for the Kick Ball League. I accused her of pulling my leg, so she pulled out her official team shirt. Sure enough, a Kick Ball League sponsored by Coors Light. We got off the train at the Metro Center station, and walked to the White House. The day was beautiful, not a cloud in the sky. This would become a problem later. The Mall was packed. I had been down there twice before, and there was twice as many people around as the other times. We did the usual sites, walked from the White House to the Vietnam Memorial, then on to the Lincoln Memorial, where I had to prove to the kid that there was nudity on display in a National Monument. Seriously. Off to the sides of big Lincoln are two ante rooms that have fresco’s which display topless women. From there, we walked past the Korean War Memorial, then up the Reflecting Pool to the World War II Memorial. This place was packed! There is a big pool and fountain in the center of the memorial, and everybody was sitting around it dipping their feet in. From there, we walked to the Smithsonian Castle, and then up the street to the Air and Space Museum. I had already informed the boy that we would be going to the Air and Space museum, since I had found out about an exhibit that I had missed the last time. By the time we got there, it was no longer a question of whether or not we would be going in. I had to visit the gift shop to buy a hat. My bald head was scorched.

We went into the museum, and we went almost immediately to the gift shop. This is why I had missed the all important exhibit before, it is on display in the gift shop. I looked around the gift shop, but couldn’t see it. Then, the kid pointed out the almost hidden escalators to the basement. Down we went, and there, at the end of the long room, it was. The Enterprise. The eleven foot, plywood and vacuum formed plastic original model of the Starship U.S.S. Enterprise, registration number 1701. I have been a Star Trek fan since I was a kid, and this was totally awesome. I bought a hat, and we ate some lunch at the most efficient McDonald’s I have ever seen. Twenty lanes with registers, order, pay, walk forward, your tray with food is ready.

After eating and guzzling down a couple of Cokes to try to quench my thirst, we continued up the mall to the Capital. I had never actually walked up to the steps of the Capital, so it was a new experience. We walked right past four kick ball games going on just across the street. We waved at the nice train station lady with big ol’ hooties. We didn’t wave with hooties, she had hooties. That sentence was poorly constructed, and I apologize.

From the Capital, we walked down to the Natural History Museum. I had already been there twice, so I found a cool, dark corner to sit and try to cool off a bit. The Kid looked around at the dinosaur bones while I sat and listened to a Japanese family talk, hoping that I could catch phrase or two since I have been studying Japanese. No luck. The only thing I understood was when they kept telling the toddler no, which I would have understood without studying. After that, we went to the Smithsonian Metro Station and headed home.

The Kid went and visited some friends Monday morning, and didn’t get back until Tuesday. I had made the mistake of telling him that New York City is only four hours away from my house. To a kid that has spent about 40 hours driving in the past two weeks, this is nothing. So I went on line and get the reserve tickets for the ferry going to Ellis Island and the Statue of Liberty. I took the day off and we got up bright and early and hit the road after snagging coffee.  We got to the ferry station about an hour and a half before our scheduled departure, but they let us go on the next one. This was a very good thing. We sat there looking across the Hudson, identifying the Empire State building, the Chrysler Building, and pretty much just looking at each other with huge grins on our faces saying “Dude, New fucking YORK!”

Ellis Island is fascinating. We spent a lot of time going around to every room, every exhibit. I love old buildings and architecture, and history. My family has a couple of ancestors that came through Ellis Island, so we looked for them a bit. We got back on the ferry and headed to the Statue. I was smart enough to get the Monument pass, so we were able to go inside the pedestal and look up the ladies skirt, so to speak. All told, it was a fantastic trip, and probably one I wouldn’t have taken if the Kid hadn’t come to visit. I cant wait to go back and actually go into NYC.

It’s Official

Last night, extreme boredom and a healthy desire for any kind of company drove me once more into the fray of forced socialization.  I decided to go have a beer or two, and to try out the last of the bars in town that had been recommended as place to hang out and meet people. The sports bar attached to the bowling alley.

Yup. The bowling alley. That should give some indication regarding this damn town, the bowling alley is one out of three recommended places. Don’t get me wrong, I love to bowl. I started bowling when I was six years old, and at one time I was pretty good. But bowling alleys are places you go with people you already know, not to try to meet people. The bar was nice enough, very spacious and big screens all over the place, a typical sports bar. They even have a Wii hooked up to one of them so you can drink and play video games. Guess what game they had up? That’s right… BOWLING. In the bar attached to the bowling alley you can virtually bowl. From what I could tell, the place does not get a lot of business because I watched the bartender get seven strikes in a row on the Wii. Obviously he has had a lot of practice. The first problem I had with the bar was the bar stools. The seat was almost four feet high. I felt like I was four years old again. I had to step up onto the brass boot rail near the floor, then onto the lowest rung of the stool before I could swing my ass onto the seat. I expected my beer to come in a sippy cup.

The second problem was the customers. There were about a dozen people in the place, four of which were female. Three of those were with a group that was playing darts, two guys for every girl. The last was sitting with her husband playing the trivia game. The crowd in the corner playing darts seemed to be having fun, the kind of fun you get when you are getting away with something. Like being underage in a bar. I sat and watched the video juke box playing rap videos while I nursed my beer, thinking things might improve as it got a bit later. The crowd grew, more and more people came in and started talking to each other and laughing. They were all guys. Now there was about five guys for every girl. I finished my beer and used the thoughtfully provided rappelling gear to get off my stool and went home. That was when I decided that it was official: I hate this town.

The next morning, I went to the coffee shop for breakfast, and talked to the one male waiter there, who actually has the appearance of someone who likes to go out and have a good time. He confirmed every observation I had made regarding the town. First and foremost, if you didn’t grow up there, you were an outsider and the only way you will have a conversation with someone is at gunpoint. He also confirmed that 99% of the women that he either worked with or knew because of his job were married or dating. And he also confirmed that this town sucks.

Being a glutton for punishment, and still bored out of my mind with no idea what to do with myself all weekend, I decided to waste some time. Normally, for me, this would have meant going to the various pawn shops and trying to find a hell of a deal on something I never knew existed, but could no longer live without. But there are only two pawn shops in the area, and their merchandise hasn’t changed since I got here. So, I decided to take a look at the Swap Meet.

Wow.

There were the usual people that you expect to see at a swap meet, the ones that don’t have enough for a full garage sale so they spend twenty bucks for a stall and try to get rid of all the baby furniture left over after the tubes got tied. But the thing I used to enjoy about swap meets were the regulars. The ones who are there week after week, who have a permanent stall and try to make a living out of selling shit nobody wants. VHS Tapes, old DVD’s, LP’s, knick knacks, candles with the Virgin Mary on them, rusty tools, knock-off designer clothes, bins full of dollar store items half off. There was one guy there who actually had some German WWII stuff, Nazi pins and medals, army helmets, and even a mold for making your own .50 caliber black powder ammo. That was the only tempting booth. The one that made decide to leave was one of the knick knack stalls. I wanted to take a picture of this, but the lady behind the table scared the shit out of me.

You know all those pairs of shoes you see hanging from power lines? You ever wonder what happens to them? They hang there in the breeze for months, then they just disappear. I always thought that the power company removed them if they happened to be doing work there, or the shoe laces would eventually rot through and they would fall to the ground, possibly hitting a car in the windshield. But now, I know the truth. This lady takes them. She somehow gets those shoes down from the line and takes them home. Then she fills them up with dirt. Then she plants something in the dirt, and when it sprouts, she takes it to the swap meet and sells it for twenty dollars. Twenty. Frickin. Dollars. For an old shoe with dirt in it. Normally, I would have just laughed at the idiocy of this. But there was a lady there trying to haggle a discount price for a matched set.

I weep for the species. And I hate this town.

Discussions on Climate Change

A good friend and I have had an ongoing discussion regarding the Climate Change issue. In the beginning, we appeared to have differing views. He supported, I was skeptical. We spent hours discussing the issue, and he had a distinct advantage over me in that he was in a position to get education regarding the issue, and I was only reading an occasional article linked on Fark.com or Digg.com.

Recently, I read an article from the NY Times, discussing the views of Freeman Dyson, a 85 year old physicist who opposes the prevailing views regarding climate change. The eight page article delves into his history, explaining how he used to have lunch with Einstein, was Oppenheimers neighbor, etc. In short, this is a brilliant man. He is also a very liberal man, one who doesn’t buy into the hype. The thing that struck me the most about the article is how this eminent scientist is now being accused of being senile for not accepting the scientific consensus regarding climate change. This was very telling to me: A well respected scientist is derided for not agreeing with everyone else. This is not science, this is politics and herd mentality.

I read another article, which I sent to my friend. This one was related to sea levels, and how the premier scientist in the field was doing numerous studies disproving the claims that sea levels are rising, and major cities of the world were going to be under water soon, as described in the hit movie, wait for it… An Inconvenient Truth. My problem was that the scientific and political communities were doing their best to decry and denounce his findings, not because of faulty science, but because he dares to disagree. His findings are dismissed, no matter how well documented and accurate, because they contrast with the party line.

I am going to copy the email exchange here, since I felt that it was the best I had written regarding my views on the subject. My friend responded to my email with the link as follows:

That’s not at all surprising.  I never really jumped on the sea level
bandwagon as there’s no way to get an accurate and sufficiently large
data set to make conclusions.  The ice core data can’t really be
debated though.  It goes back hundreds of thousands of years and our
ability to measure C02 in it is quite accurate.  I don’t know what
that means as far as prediction abilities go, however.

Hell, I went to a talk by one of the foremost experts in sea ice and
its relation to climate change (Ken Golden from Univ. of Utah) and one
of the first things he mentioned was that predictive models aren’t
totally accurate because they can’t take everything into account.
Trust me, the experts aren’t the ones saying the world is going to end
tomorrow.  It’s the politicians and news media looking to
sensationalize the issue.

In response to this, I wrote the following:

I believe this more than anything gets to the root of my issues with the Climate Change crowd. On one hand, we have Ken Golden who prefaces his lecture with the disclaimer that it is impossible to know with certainty what will happen. I would be more inclined to respect the views of Ken Golden, based solely on this simple fact. Real science is being used, and the conclusions point to a trend, rather than a Psychic Friends type scenario of imminent catastrophe.
 
On the other hand, the only persons who are being listened to are those with an agenda. Typically, these are NOT scientists, and do not base much of their preaching on science. They take the pieces of science that support their view, and accept them as an axiom. This, more than anything, causes me to rebel against the idea, in spite of my intellect telling that I am responding emotionally.
 
As far as the ice core data is concerned, I agree that it is very difficult to debate the data. That can be measured and proven without doubt. What I believe to still be in question is the relationship between CO2 levels and global climate. I will admit to not having done extensive research on the issue, but I have to assume that the CO2 trapped in the arctic or antarctic ice can be accurately correlated to a specific time period. That data can be cross referenced to geological data for the same period to see what kind of environment was prevalent. For instance, it seems likely that if we have elevated levels of CO2 in ice core samples in the same time period that the geological record shows an abundance of rain forest type plants, it is not unreasonable to assume that during that time, there were elevated CO2 levels and tropical temperatures in a much larger area of the globe. To me, again, with the disclaimer of lack of research, this does not prove causation. Are the temperatures due to the elevated CO2 levels, or are the CO2 levels due to the increased volume of life present in tropical jungle growth?
 
In either case, the arguments are merely theories that cannot be proven without duplication. Computer models can only go so far, and without sustained, epoch spanning measurements, the absolute truth cannot be known.
 
Do I believe that we should do nothing until it can be proven? Of course not. I truly believe that there needs to be steps taken to reduce the level of pollutants being dumped into the air, water and earth. This comes mostly from an aesthetic point of view, I want to always be able to see the Tetons without squinting though smog. This point was driven home in my mind in the Shenandoah National Park, where I had difficulty seeing mountains five miles away due the haze in the air. The other reason I believe it to be necessary is from a health point of view. It is pretty much impossible to keep pollutants out of the food chain. Water pollutants get into the fish, which is food not only for humans, but other life as well. The same goes for ground pollutants. Plants take their nutrients from the soil, and if contaminants are in those nutrients, they become a part of the food we eat.
 
So, in conclusion, I believe that we agree fundamentally. Our differing view point comes from the fact that I tend to discredit the “popular” stance regarding climate change, since it seems more and more to follow the zealotry associated with a religion, and not science. But this does not mean that I disbelieve the science, provided the scientist is not a part of an agenda. For this reason, I turn a skeptical eye on any claims made by James Hansen, as he appears to have an agenda of keeping himself highly visible not only in the media, but to government officials as well. I see his warnings and a voice in the back of my head tells me that he is looking for a new political appointment as the “Head of the Presidential Committee on Climate Change and Environmental Studies.”

 For reasons stated above, I have a tendency to discredit the mainstream views regarding climate change. When a group resorts to personal attacks on a scientist because he wont toe the line, we are no longer dealing with science, we are dealing with politics. Lets face facts here: Saving the planet is a big money industry. All those earth-friendly shopping bags, all the clever t-shirts, all the galas thrown by Hollywood types all cost money.  Follow the dollars, and you will see the truth. I wonder how much Al Gore gets for a speaking engagement to discuss global warming? Enough to afford big houses and production costs of award winning documentaries. Why are so many sheeple willing to believe the words of a politician on scientific studies? Doesn’t anyone think that it may be possible that Big Green Al has an alternate agenda? I honestly cant think of any other Vice President or failed Presidential candidate that is in the news more than Al. Am I the only person that thinks he is planning another bid for the big chair, and is doing everything he can to stay relevant? The man is in the public consciousness, and I think we will see him “working closely with President Obama” on environmental issues.

Mathematical Improbability

I was recently talking with two of the ladies I work with, and we were discussing various things. I mentioned that I had bought a Play-Doh Fun Factory for the express purpose of making Space Invader cookies. The younger of the two, in her early twenties, was amazed that I knew how to make cookies. I then went on to describe a few of  other baked goods that I am able to make. I knew that many of the terms I was using were going over her head when she described an egg separator that had been given to her by her grandmother, and I had to tell her what it was for and how to use it. Then she asked why you would want to separate the egg yolk from the egg white. The first thing that popped into my head was that egg whites are used for meringue. I then also told her that I use a egg white and water mixture to dip chicken into before coating it with my own special blend of corn flake crumbs and various spices and seasonings. I explained that by doing this, I was able to get a crispy outer coating, while the chicken inside remained moist and juicy when baking, rather than frying. At this point, she turned to the other lady and asked, “Are you hearing this?”

The other lady looked me in the eye and asked, “How in the hell are you living alone?”

Further discussion reiterated what I had been told in the past. Women who are already attached see me as the embodiment of what they wish their current partner was more like. While I am not currently ready to start dating again, the conversion did get me to thinking about the time when I am ready. As things stand right now, I am still married, even though I have been separated for over six months. I cannot change that fact for another six months, due to state laws regarding divorce. But that even outs, really. Most “professionals” state that you should give a year after a divorce before you start thinking about dating, so by the time I can file for divorce, that year waiting period will be over. Once the Judge signs the paper, I can date again and not violate my own personal standards regarding cheating on a spouse, and will have completed the recommended period of  “alone time.”

As I went through the rest of the week, going to stores or restaurants, I began to take a greater notice of the females I encountered. Things didn’t look good for the future. The ones that I saw that met my indecipherable criteria for interest all had a similar health issue: A huge tumor growing on the ring finger of their left hand. More commonly referred to as an engagement or wedding ring. Since a friend of mine has been studying statistics and probability and we have had several discussions about it, I thought I would run the numbers and see where I stood.

I pulled up the Census data, as predicted for 2008 and then looked at the demographic breakdown for different categories. I then used my own “rule of thumb” and “SWAG” estimates on the hard data. (If you don’t know what SWAG is, it is an acronym meaning Scientific Wild Assed Guess)

I used population data for the county rather than the small town since it gives a much larger sample to work with. The county population is 14 times higher than the town, and the county is so small that nowhere in it is a drive of more than 20 minutes. The county population is 42,190 people, with 50.5% being female. So there are more women than men, so far so good. I now have a group of 21, 306 women to choose from. But wait! Not all of them are in my age range. Luckily, the census data had already selected a age range that fits my personal age range of date-able women, the 25-44 bracket. Only 29.9% of the population falls in that range, so now I am down to 6,370 date-able women. But I do have standards, and I will only date unmarried women, so combining the demographics of “single, never married” and “divorced,” there is only 32.4% out of those that I can look at. This leaves 2063 potential subjects.

Not bad. Even if I assume a 1 in a hundred chance, there are still 20 to pick and choose from, and that is based on the hard data. But I haven’t added in the SWAG data yet. Based on information gathered from various sources, basically meaning that I got to know a few people at area restaurants and bars and flat out asking them about women that met my attractiveness quotient, approximately 60% of those without rings on their fingers are currently involved in a serious relationship that has been going on for quite some time. Eliminating those, we have 825 remaining possibilities. Keeping my eyes open in grocery stores, restaurants, etc, I have concluded that I only find 1 in 3 women in the area attractive. Now I am down to 272. Given my own quirks,  I would estimate that only 10% will either share or be able to accept the odd hobbies and interests that I have. Now we are down to 27 possibilities.  Assuming that there is only a 10% chance that two people will have a mutual attraction for each other, I am down to 2. Then we figure in the possibility of a chance meeting putting these people in contact with each other, which I calculate by adding myself to the number of possibilities and dividing by the total population, I am down to a .0007% chance.

What is the point of all this? Nothing really. Nothing more than a diversion into applied mathematics. A very complicated story problem. “Given the above data, how many one dollar bills Tick will need each month for the tipping in strip clubs? Solve for XXX.”